5 Real Estate Predictions for Arizona Buyers and Sellers in 2026

National headlines don't tell the whole story. Get a hyper-local look at what 2026 truly holds for Arizona real estate.

Everywhere I go, people ask me the same thing: What’s actually going to happen in 2026? After digging through all the noise like headlines, forecasts, and even the TikTok doomers, I pulled together five predictions that truly matter for the Arizona real estate market. Plus, another bonus trend that you’d love to know!

As your Arizona “Boss Mom,” I’m giving you the version without hype and without panic, just a clear look at what the data is pointing to. Here’s what you need to know.

1. Prices will rise, but barely. National experts are expecting around 1% to 4% growth in 2026. It’s neither a crash nor a boom, but a slow and steady appreciation. That’s totally fine with me because that means stability.

Here in Arizona, this outlook makes sense. We’re not heading toward runaway appreciation like the pandemic years, and we’re not standing on the edge of a cliff. Homeowners can relax knowing their equity isn’t disappearing, while buyers should understand that waiting for major price drops isn’t a real strategy.

Based on what we are seeing with supply, jobs, and migration, everything points to modest and steady growth, which is genuinely good news.

2. Inventory will improve, but not enough. Inventory is projected to rise about 5% to 10% percent in 2026, which is helpful, but not game-changing. In the Phoenix metro and the East Valley, more move-up sellers will finally let go of their cherished 2.8% mortgage rates and put their homes on the market. That will create more choices for homebuyers, but not the endless selection many are hoping for.

On the other hand, sellers will face a little more competition, but there will not be the massive surge in listings that some people like to predict. It’s simply a shift toward a more balanced level of supply.

3. Mortgage rates will be stubborn. Rates may drop a bit, possibly into the high fives if the economy cooperates, but the 3% era is gone. The strategy is simple. If the payment works for you, stop waiting for the perfect scenario. And if you are selling, do not use higher rates as an excuse to cut corners. In a market with stubborn rates, the homes that are well presented will win.

"Real estate success in 2026 will depend on understanding your local micro-market, not statewide trends."

4. Arizona’s hinge year. The 2026 market could move in different directions depending on rates, job growth, and migration. If rates fall below 6% and stay there, the East Valley may see a surge of pent-up demand. If rates remain high, the market will stay steady and segmented—not exciting, but not disastrous either.

It’s also important to remember that Arizona is no longer one single market. Chandler behaves differently from Mesa, Tempe moves differently from Apache Junction, and Sun Lakes follows its own rules. Success in 2026 will depend on understanding your local micro-market, not statewide trends.

5. Micro-markets will rule everything. This is the sleeper prediction most people overlook: ZIP codes will matter more than ever. The real drivers in 2026 will be hyper-local trends like school districts, walkability, HOA amenities, property condition, and even the age of the HVAC system.

Statewide averages are useless, and national averages are even more so. If you’re buying or selling, the real question is what’s happening within a mile of your front door because that’s what’s going to drive your results.

Distressed inventory will tick up (but not like 2008). I know people quietly wonder about this: Are foreclosures or short sales coming back? The truth is, foreclosure and auction activity are slowly rising across the country. It’s not a surge, and it’s not a crisis—just a return to more normal levels after years of artificially low numbers. 

Some analysts expect a modest rise in late 2026 into 2027, especially for buyers who bought at peak prices and are now facing higher insurance, taxes, and inflation.

In Arizona, this trend won’t take over the market, but it will appear in certain pockets. Investor-heavy areas, fringe new-build zones, and ZIP codes with thinner equity margins are the ones to watch. It’s not 2008, but it’s something smart buyers and sellers should keep on their radar.

So, those are my predictions for 2026! If you want a read on your specific micro-market or you’re planning a move next year, give me a call at 480-415-1341 or shoot me an email at Katie@Living48re.com. Stay safe through the holidays, and I will see you in the new year.