Published September 10, 2024

September STAT ???? - Will rates fall on September 18?

Written by Katie Evans

September STAT ???? - Will rates fall on September 18? header image.

COMMENTARY by James Marcus
One of the purposes of STAT is to give some economic context to accompany the numbers, a task Tom excelled at. However, with 56 days until the Election, if there was ever a time we could all agree on which economic factors actually matter, it's probably not this time. ARMLS is an apolitical organization, as we do not donate or endorse candidates. Nor do we ask or collect any funds for this purpose. All this is to say, if you infer any political leanings in this issue, it is unintentional.

On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index is set to be released. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is "a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services." It is expected to inform the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to cut interest rates on September 18. However, the Fed's actions have not been easy to predict. There have been many false-starts, but mortgage rates have been falling year over year:

Winston Churchill once said, "History is written by the victors." With access to mountains of data, a more modern phrase might be: history is best written by those who zoom out. Here is the 10-year chart for more context:

Better rates help increase affordability. Getting folks into stable homeownership is a dream to many, and ARMLS subscribers make that happen. That is something we can all agree on.

ARMLS PENDING PRICE INDEX